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South Carolina Was Not “Tailor-Made” for Ted Cruz: Here’s the Real Cruz Path to Victory

The whole idea of analyzing this race as an establishment vs. anti-establishment battle has been all wrong. That is simply not how voters think. Trump and Cruz are not doing anything new that we haven’t seen before. They are playing out the classic Rockefeller vs. Goldwater conflict that we also just saw play out with Romney vs. Santorum four years ago. Rubio is filling the role of Gingrich, someone who treads the ground between moderate and conservative and can’t quite seem to win any states.

Fox News has been spinning the false narrative that South Carolina was “tailor-made” for Cruz and saying “if he can’t win there, where else can he win?” This is a COMPLETELY MADE-UP FALSE NARRATIVE. It was never a favorable state for Cruz. It was a state where Santorum finished a distant third four years ago, behind more secular candidates Gingrich and Romney. While Cruz does have a real but mostly still untapped potential to appeal to secular voters, the Faux narrative that evangelicals made South Carolina a very favorable state for Cruz is JUST WRONG.

South Carolina went for the most “tough-talking” candidate last time with Gingrich and again this time with Trump. Establishment Romney came in 2nd last time just as Rubio did this time. The conservatives in this state seem to like aggression in a candidate above all else. There also appears to be a solid establishment streak in the state.

To put Trump’s victory in perspective, he got a lower vote total in SC than Gingrich got and a much lower percentage. Cruz and Rubio both performed about as well as Romney and well above Santorum.

Cruz continues to have a path forward to victory because the other Southern states just don’t have the same profile as South Carolina. Santorum won most of the other Southern states last time just like he won Iowa, despite getting trounced in South Carolina much worse than Cruz did. These upcoming states are therefore much more favorable ground for Cruz. If Cruz can win Santorum’s states, he can perhaps gain the momentum to flip some other states Santorum lost (hopefully not wasting any more time in the Romney/Trump home field advantage northeastern states).

For now Cruz is stuck in the “social conservative” lane, a lane which NEVER included South Carolina as fertile ground. This is the lane he needs to perform well in as he works on broadening his base to include national security conservatives, economic conservatives and people who just have faith he can beat the Democrat.

Below is a list of all the states voting in March and how they would vote if they followed the basic pattern Romney and Santorum experienced. While I haven’t tried to count all the delegates they will be handing out, I am seeing 13 Trump states and 16 Cruz states (plus maybe Puerto Rico for amnesty pimp Rubio). For us to see a clear winner in March, either Cruz or Trump will probably need to flip some of these states from their opponent’s predicted column into theirs.

February/March primary states:

Romney won, could go to Trump:
Nevada
Alaska
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maine
Hawaii
Idaho (I guess?)
Michigan
Washington, D.C.
Florida
Illinois
Northern Mariana Islands
Arizona

Santorum won, could go to Cruz:
Alabama
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Kansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri

Gingrich won, could go to Cruz:
Georgia

Romney won, could go to Rubio:
Puerto Rico

Texas, Arkansas and Kentucky were late May votes last time so they went for Romney, but seem like solid Cruz states.

Virginia only had Romney and Paul on the ballot but it had a huge protest vote against Romney through Paul. North Carolina was also a late Romney state last time so hard to to say where it goes, but perhaps with momentum in the rest of the South Cruz could pick it up. Ohio was a dead heat last time with a tiny Romney victory, but Gingrich also did well there, so I’d say that’s a Cruz-leaning state. Utah was a solid Romney state because Mormons, but polling seems to show Cruz on top there now.

Romney won, could go to Cruz:
Texas
Arkansas
Kentucky
Virginia
North Carolina
Ohio
Utah

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Why I Endorse Ted Cruz for President

Ted Cruz is the man our country needs as its next President. What matters in a President more than anything else is having the right values, policies, positions and ideology. To be sure a candidate has those, they need to have a clear, consistent record and not a bunch of flip-flops. Cruz is thoroughly sincere and consistent on favoring a small government, a strong military and Judeo-Christian values. This country has NO future unless it gets its moral house in order. Government has been responsible for much of our moral decay, from the banning of school prayer to Roe vs. Wade to legalizing same-sex marriage. Government therefore must play a large role in restoring our nation’s moral foundation.

The single most important role of a President is appointing Supreme Court justices. Until we pass Constitutional amendments that instill checks on their power, the Supreme Court will continue to hold veto power over the other branches of government. The unconstitutional legislation that the Democrats would unleash if they knew a court packed with liberal justices was ready and waiting to approve it would fundamentally transform our nation in disastrous ways. As a man who’s argued the conservative side of cases before the Supreme Court many times, Ted Cruz is perhaps more qualified than anybody who’s run for President in our lifetimes to identify and appoint strict constructionist justices. I don’t know who the next up-and-coming conservative justices are, but I’m sure Cruz does. Cruz’ unique acuity will extend to appointing lower court judges as well, to our country’s great benefit.

Cruz is a genuinely intelligent man who will easily be able to learn and react to whatever unexpected situations he encounters on the job. He’s also extremely articulate and can be the best communicator for conservative causes since Ronald Reagan. The country is rapidly lurching to the left, as demonstrated by the Democrat party’s steady morph into a socialist/communist entity. We need someone in the highly visible position of the presidency to be a spokesman for the other side if we’re ever going to turn that trend around.

The idea stated by some Donald Trump supporters that having the resume of a businessman is what is needed to be President is a dangerous and illogical one. There are plenty of liberal and Democrat billionaire businessmen out there. Would we want them in charge? Should we draft Michael Bloomberg, John Corzine, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg or George Soros to run on the Republican ticket in the next election?

Government itself does not function like a business. A business leader is accustomed to being a dictator of his operation. Bringing that attitude to the White House would lead to an imperial presidency that sidesteps checks and balances, including the role of the “fourth branch,” the media. Trump has treated the media badly and actually bans them from reporting on his Iowa operation. He does not appear to be interested in being held accountable to the media and, by extension, to the public.

A good businessman is fundamentally more of a follower than a leader. They form a successful business by sticking their finger in the wind of public opinion and selling exactly what the public demands. When their sales go down, they quickly make changes if they want to stay in business. This explains why Trump’s political positions have shifted so much before and during his campaign and why, for example, he told Howard Stern that he’s against same-sex marriage but that “he could change his mind.” A presidency that is run by polls instead of on principles means that every campaign promise is in danger of being broken and the Constitution, which requires a higher bar than 50% to amend for a reason, is likewise always in danger.

Ted Cruz has shown himself to be a rare, consistent, conservative voice in government since the beginning of his public life. He is a man who stands on traditional conservative principles and fights for them against all opponents and against all odds. He has proven to be knowledgeable and strong on every single issue. He is qualified for the presidency, he is ready for the presidency and he is right for the presidency. We have been waiting a long time to find a voice that can articulate and restore the bedrock, foundational, conservative principles of the Republican party. Ted Cruz is that man. No one else running will do greater and more important things with the power of the presidency than him.